# EMU Regime Strain Index (Deviation-Based)

Predicted CA/GDP *deviation from EMU mean* using Z deviation coefficients.

Positive = demographically-driven surplus relative to EMU mean. Negative = demographically-driven deficit.

Strain = |predicted CA deviation|. Larger absolute values indicate greater pressure from demographic mismatch.

| Country | 2000 | 2010 | 2020 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | 2060 |
|:---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| FRA | +0.44 | +1.04 | -0.58 | -4.79 | -5.82 | -3.97 | -0.57 |
| FIN | +4.21 | +3.96 | -1.01 | -6.98 | -5.19 | -0.05 | +2.59 |
| ITA | -1.36 | -0.43 | -1.48 | -1.81 | -4.02 | -9.63 | -9.51 |
| DEU | +1.86 | +0.91 | -1.00 | +0.53 | -3.18 | -4.66 | +0.34 |
| BEL | +1.16 | +0.96 | -0.21 | -2.01 | -2.76 | -1.25 | +1.53 |
| PRT | -1.47 | -0.64 | -0.83 | -0.90 | -2.61 | -5.73 | -6.17 |
| GRC | -2.45 | -2.64 | -2.33 | -1.23 | -2.00 | -5.08 | -6.85 |
| NLD | +1.74 | +4.45 | +1.18 | -1.59 | -1.45 | -0.51 | +4.80 |
| AUT | -0.58 | -0.57 | +0.10 | +1.44 | -0.78 | -3.16 | -0.62 |
| ESP | -6.37 | -2.71 | +0.07 | +1.38 | -0.32 | -6.16 | -9.89 |
| SVN | -0.21 | +1.40 | +3.56 | +2.35 | -0.01 | -1.61 | -3.80 |
| EST | +0.63 | +0.29 | +0.04 | -0.51 | +0.94 | +3.69 | +1.78 |
| LVA | +0.29 | -0.44 | +1.60 | +0.60 | +1.11 | +4.42 | +5.02 |
| LTU | +0.91 | -2.36 | +1.28 | +0.84 | +1.81 | +5.05 | +7.77 |
| MLT | +2.93 | +1.33 | -4.64 | -3.16 | +1.87 | +5.97 | +0.93 |
| IRL | -1.49 | +0.97 | +2.67 | +0.81 | +2.65 | +3.27 | +1.74 |
| LUX | +3.36 | +1.04 | -0.17 | +4.30 | +5.02 | +3.85 | +4.07 |
| SVK | -2.14 | -0.98 | +4.29 | +6.02 | +6.47 | +7.06 | +2.22 |
| CYP | -1.46 | -5.60 | -2.54 | +4.72 | +8.27 | +8.51 | +4.63 |

*Coefficients from within-EMU Z deviation regression (N=447). Z deviations = country Z minus EMU cross-sectional mean per year. Z projections from UN WPP.*